👁 Everything is Fear and Timing

As much as we’d all like to credit our own brilliance for success, in reality so much of “success” is due to timing. Starbucks building digital loyalty to hit macro scale, pivoting the business from real estate to a digital bank? Timing. Shopify’s ascendency coming just after the open source boom, right as the world turned to cloud and SaaS? Timing. 

It takes brilliance, and a stiff neck to lead, sure. But timing? That’s up to the gods. 

The gods, though; they demand a sacrifice. Bob Chapek might be Disney’s sacrifice to make unpopular changes during a tumultuous period for the business. Following nearly 6 months of changes that further commercialize the business, alienating the House of Mouse from their loyal middle-class customers, Chapek’s latest gaffe has him squaring off against their LGBTQ community who have asked Disney to step up against the Florida law popularly known as “Don’t Say Gay”, which would ban counseling and discussions of same-sex and sexual identity issues in elementary-age children for public schools.

Chapek politely declined to engage. Why? Some say fear. Some have made comparisons to Bob Iger, Chapek’s predecessor. The reality is that the timing has been unfavorable for the embattled chief executive, and with streaming growth for their Disney+ service slugging along, it looks like the next fight may be against shareholders demanding growth, but that growth comes at a cost. Pixar employees have expressed disdain for the decision to push Turning Red, their latest feature release, in direct to streaming, rather than a broad theatrical release. The stated reason was covid-related, but no doubt the Disney+ exclusive helps to bolster their numbers and bridge them into the spring when many new titles like Obi-Wan would be aiding retention.

Disney is forging a path not too dissimilar to Nike, who have walked a fine line with their very broad consumer base on issues of race and equality. Michael Jordan, Nike’s brand namesake, was famously quoted as saying “Republicans buy sneakers, too”. Taking the center road often makes a brand an easy target for both sides of an issue. Both companies risk alienating a middle-class consumer as they move upmarket. Nike’s chief executive, John Donahoe, himself has benefit from stellar timing, he was the leader during eBay’s stellar period of M&A and enterprise growth, which included GSI, Paypal, and Magento; all formidable players which now see their popularity on the decline due to the change in market preferences, and poor timing.

As Chapek weathers the storm, he’ll need to put on a PR campaign to swing the public back to his side. Iger led the company through decades of growth and investment, Chapek will lead the company through belt-tightening and commercialization. Changes long overdue, to be sure, but the timing couldn’t be worse.

• Phillip