Quick Commerce's God Complex
Welcome to 2025, futurists!
We're off to the races already for the year 🏃♂️. While Costco plants its flag firmly in DEI territory 🚩, the Commerce Department flexes newfound muscle over Chinese drones 🚁. Meanwhile, a retail titan's sons inherit an empire built on distressed assets 👑, and quick commerce ventures into emergency services 🚑. If the first week is any indication, 2025 will be defined not by technological revolution, but by institutional reinvention ✨.
Speaking of Costco… Our 2025 Predictions are here.
2025: The Rise of GenX, Technocrats, and Costco as American Dynamism
What happens when quantum thinking meets commerce forecasting? Our annual predictions episode just dropped, and it's a masterclass in pattern recognition that others haven't yet spotted.
🎯 Last year's receipts:
- We called OpenAI's leadership crisis months ahead
- Predicted JOANN's bankruptcy to the month
- Saw Elon's comeback when everyone else was betting against him
Now we're seeing signals that 2025 will fundamentally reshape American commerce and culture:
🔄 The Great Reorganization
GenX – that forgotten cohort of cynical pragmatists – is about to have its moment. Just as mega-corporations begin splitting themselves into digestible entities (think Kellonova, but bigger), we're witnessing the rise of a leadership style that thrives in creative destruction.
📺 The Media-fication of Retail
Walmart isn't just a retailer anymore – they're crafting ambient retail experiences through Gilmore Girls-themed shopping environments. It's not about channels; it's about crafting entirely new realities for commerce.
🛠️ The Hardware Renaissance
From teenage engineering's potential to become "the next Apple" to the surprise return of American manufacturing, 2025 might finally be the year we fall back in love with beautiful, purposeful objects.
But perhaps most intriguing: why Costco might be the purest distillation of the American dream we have left. (Yes, really. And we have the proof points.)
🔮 Are You Ready?
As Phillip notes in one of the episode's most poignant moments: "We have to imagine a better future before we can build it." Are we ready to do that work?
🎧 Dive into our longest predictions episode ever on Apple or Spotify
✨ Coming to NRF's Big Show? Join us January 14th for the launch of LORE, our new journal examining the mythologies of modern commerce. The future is written in the patterns of the present – if you know where to look.
A Retail Resurrection? Former Modell's titan Mitch Modell announces rescue mission for Party City and Big Lots, aiming to preserve 33,000 jobs. According to a report in the NY Post, Modell aims to raise $1B to save the embattled brands and will charge sons Matthew and Maxwell Modell (23 and 22, respectively) as co-presidents of the new company.
Costco’s Stand. While Walmart is pulling back its DEI program, Costco this week doubled down on diversity initiatives, defending its DEI programs as essential to business success despite mounting right-wing pressure. This shouldn’t be surprising. In an era where corporate virtue signaling has become a spectator sport, Costco has always taken a partner-first approach that prioritizes the needs of its employees.
Net Neutrality's Final Chapter. The Appeals Court strikes down long-contested broadband regulations, ending a two-decade battle over internet service provider controls.
Dating by the Numbers. A viral Reddit post reveals exhaustive Tinder metrics, offering a stark glimpse into modern dating's algorithmic realities. A continuation of the Spotify Wrapped trend, with a late capitalist twist.
Quick Commerce's Critical Evolution. Indian delivery platform Blinkit now turns its disruptive eye toward emergency services with a 10-minute ambulance response in Gurugram. As delivery platforms increasingly position themselves as infrastructure rather than services, we're witnessing quick commerce's logical (if unsettling) evolution. This raises profound questions about the privatization of essential services and the true cost of convenience in our algorithmically-optimized world.
The Bowl That Ate The World. Pop-Tarts Bowl reported a 21 million unit sales spike following the 2024 edible mascot sensation. This year’s bowl went thrice as hard, peaking at 8.7M viewers, besting a 2008 viewership record. Live event viewing has been on the rise post-Covid. Pop-Tarts has captured a meta-content cultural, viral marketing moment, though. It's a perfect metaphor for how modern brands must feed physical and digital hunger. The edible mascot transcends traditional sports marketing, creating a memetic moment that bridges social media virality with tangible consumption. When your trophy becomes a toaster, you've mastered the art of experiential commerce.
Security Takes Flight. In its final days under the leadership of outgoing Secretary Gina Raimondo, the U.S. Commerce Department contemplates a Chinese drone ban, including consumer brand leader DJI, escalating tech tensions with a March deadline for industry feedback.
Our Take: This potential ban represents more than just another skirmish in the ongoing tech cold war with China. It’s a flex of the Commerce Department’s growing power struggle (Member Brief), and its distinction of powers away from Treasury’s lapdog. It's a fascinating case study of how national security concerns are reshaping global supply chains and forcing a reevaluation of consumer tech dependencies. DJI's near-monopoly in the consumer drone space makes this particularly thorny–any ban would require a new domestic drone industry almost overnight.
The timing of this proposal, coming as new defense aerospace and contractors like Anduril ramp up their programs, suggests a broader strategic repositioning of the U.S. drone market.
Spatial Computing: From Hollywood to the Courtroom. As spatial computing navigates its ambivalent adolescence, we witness a compelling dissonance in its adoption trajectory. While industry observers urge restraint for mass-market expectations, specialized domains are already weaving these technologies into critical workflows. Wicked director Jon Chu's pioneering integration of Vision Pro in post-production stands alongside a Broward County judge's groundbreaking use of VR for crime scene reconstruction.