Birkin & The Gravitational Field of Luxury
On Birkin Bags, Trade Wars and Jane's Law
In luxury discourse, all conversations inevitably collapse into the event horizon of the Hermès Birkin—a phenomenon so reliably observable that Nemesis Global has christened it "Jane's Law.”
Emily Segal, co-founder of NEMESIS, speaking from VISIONS Summit in October:
"There's something about the hollowness of online representation—where snapping a photo with a Birkin is infinitely more accessible than maintaining the yuppie deluxe lifestyle of raising two children without financial ruin—that people are beginning to puzzle through as algorithmic conspicuous consumption creates an overabundance of vibes."
Like Godwin's Law before it (the internet adage positing that as online discussions grow longer, comparisons to Hitler become increasingly probable), this maxim codifies what we've intuitively understood: "As a discussion of luxury grows longer, the probability of a focus on the Hermès Birkin bag approaches one."
The timing couldn't be more perfect, as TikTok witnesses a disinformation insurgency (read more below) where factories claim to sell "direct" luxury counterfeits, compiling spreadsheets of suppliers while stripping away luxury's theatrical pretenses. This isn't merely about knockoffs—it's the latest evolution in commerce's Darwinian progression: wholesale slaughtered by retail, retail dispatched by brands, brands trembling before DTC, and now DTC itself facing manufacturer-direct models.
The counterfeit Birkin stands at this crossroads, simultaneously luxury's most potent totem and the ultimate prize in aesthetic democratization. Read more about the trade war brewing below, where the gravitational pull of Jane's Law manifests in unexpected ways.
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📕 We write about the misconceptions of consumer culture and mythology of luxury in our newest 280-page journal, LORE. Available now from Future Commerce Press:futurecommerce.com/lore
Costco's Anti-Boycott Boon. Costco appears to be benefiting from consumer backlash against Target's DEI pullback, as Target's foot traffic continues to decline while Costco thrives. The warehouse retailer has become a safe harbor for conscious consumers seeking alternatives amid retail culture wars.
Made in China Disinformation. A concerning trade war is brewing on TikTok where factories claim to sell "direct" luxury goods like counterfeit Birkin bags, Birkenstocks (and other things not prefixed with Birkin-), cutting out brands as "the middleman."
Consumers are compiling detailed Google Sheets of "suppliers" for direct purchasing through platforms like Taobao, while videos from accounts like SenBags post detailed cost breakdowns of producing counterfeit Birkin bags that they claim come from the same factories as authentic versions. Meanwhile, creators advocate for patience over 2-day shipping to get "more for less," framing traditional retail as a ripoff. This represents both a response to rising tariffs and potentially orchestrated soft power disinformation.
Our Take: What we're witnessing isn't merely counterfeit commerce, but a semiotic insurgency against luxury's foundational myth. The virality of these "factory direct" claims reveals our collective disillusionment with the artifice of scarcity that luxury brands meticulously cultivate.
It also hints at the ongoing nature of “cut out the middleman” rhetoric and how powerful that can be as its own myth. First, when eCommerce allowed brands to disintermediate retailers, and now as factories attempt to do the same to brands themselves.
Despite obvious authenticity concerns, the consumer's willingness to embrace this narrative speaks to a post-truth commerce paradigm where perceived value increasingly untethers from provenance. It doesn’t matter where the product is from to some consumers because we live in the age of aesthetics. Legitimacy is secondary to the illusion of taste.
Never mind that Hermès and Birkenstock do not produce in China; the myth that “everything comes from China” is powerful enough to be accepted at face value.
More troubling still is how this phenomenon weaponizes Western consumerism's inherent contradictions: our simultaneous desires for democratic access and exclusive ownership. This TikTok-amplified gray market represents the perfect confluence of economic anxiety, information warfare, and late-capitalism's inevitable self-cannibalization.
On Gen Z TikTok, we’re witnessing a populist commerce-centric uprising, where purchase of the counterfeit paradoxically feels more "authentic" than the genuine article, precisely because it strips away luxury's theatrical pretenses.
Doomsday as a Business Model. The "prepper" industry is thriving as Americans stockpile for disaster, with about one-third of adults prepping for doomsday scenarios and spending a collective $11 billion over 12 months. Companies building bunkers, panic rooms, and even homes with flammable moats are seeing unprecedented demand amid fears of pandemics, nuclear war, and civil unrest.
De-boned Iver. In a delightfully unexpected collaboration, Bon Iver has partnered with Fishwife to create SABLE, fABLE smoked salmon. The limited-edition offering comes in a salmon-pink box adorned with hand-drawn fish that appear to be swimming in rhythm, merging indie folk aesthetics (and layered vocal reverb) with the premium tinned fish trend.
Artificial Intimacy. New research from Harvard Business Review reveals that GenAI is no longer a productivity tool; it's an intimate companion. With the ecosystem evolving to include custom GPTs and new capabilities like voice commands, AI tools are now therapists, friends, and trusted guides designed to help us understand, reflect, and regulate. As these systems become more adept at simulating empathy, they're enabling a new paradigm of “pseudo-intimacy”—satisfying our innate need for connection while subtly reshaping the fabric of human relationships. Is this blurring between man and machine elevating our ability to process the world around us and become more active (and empathetic) humans? Or is it simply making us more alone and more isolated?
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