of the United Kingdom’s capitol city.
"We have to imagine a better future before we can build it."
Last year, Future Commerce predicted OpenAI's leadership crisis, called JOANN's bankruptcy to the month, and saw Elon's comeback before anyone else.
Now, as we look to 2025, patterns are emerging that point to tectonic shifts in commerce, culture, and technology. From Gen X's unexpected rise to power to Walmart's transformation into a media empire, the next year will redefine how we think about American enterprise and innovation.
We capture these annually on our predictions podcast (Apple, Spotify), but we’ve compiled them here for paid subscribers of Future Commerce Plus.
Costco: The New American Imperialism
In what might be his boldest prediction yet, Brian Lange, co-founder of Future Commerce, sees Costco as more than just a retail winner—it represents the American dream exported globally.
Brian: "Costco represents the American dream probably better than any other institution. It is Americanism. It is American thinking pushed out through the world. It is the Michael Jackson of now, it is the blue jeans of now... it is actually America in the world."
This thesis rests on several key observations:
"We have to imagine a better future before we can build it."
Last year, Future Commerce predicted OpenAI's leadership crisis, called JOANN's bankruptcy to the month, and saw Elon's comeback before anyone else.
Now, as we look to 2025, patterns are emerging that point to tectonic shifts in commerce, culture, and technology. From Gen X's unexpected rise to power to Walmart's transformation into a media empire, the next year will redefine how we think about American enterprise and innovation.
We capture these annually on our predictions podcast (Apple, Spotify), but we’ve compiled them here for paid subscribers of Future Commerce Plus.
Costco: The New American Imperialism
In what might be his boldest prediction yet, Brian Lange, co-founder of Future Commerce, sees Costco as more than just a retail winner—it represents the American dream exported globally.
Brian: "Costco represents the American dream probably better than any other institution. It is Americanism. It is American thinking pushed out through the world. It is the Michael Jackson of now, it is the blue jeans of now... it is actually America in the world."
This thesis rests on several key observations:
"We have to imagine a better future before we can build it."
Last year, Future Commerce predicted OpenAI's leadership crisis, called JOANN's bankruptcy to the month, and saw Elon's comeback before anyone else.
Now, as we look to 2025, patterns are emerging that point to tectonic shifts in commerce, culture, and technology. From Gen X's unexpected rise to power to Walmart's transformation into a media empire, the next year will redefine how we think about American enterprise and innovation.
We capture these annually on our predictions podcast (Apple, Spotify), but we’ve compiled them here for paid subscribers of Future Commerce Plus.
Costco: The New American Imperialism
In what might be his boldest prediction yet, Brian Lange, co-founder of Future Commerce, sees Costco as more than just a retail winner—it represents the American dream exported globally.
Brian: "Costco represents the American dream probably better than any other institution. It is Americanism. It is American thinking pushed out through the world. It is the Michael Jackson of now, it is the blue jeans of now... it is actually America in the world."
This thesis rests on several key observations:
"We have to imagine a better future before we can build it."
Last year, Future Commerce predicted OpenAI's leadership crisis, called JOANN's bankruptcy to the month, and saw Elon's comeback before anyone else.
Now, as we look to 2025, patterns are emerging that point to tectonic shifts in commerce, culture, and technology. From Gen X's unexpected rise to power to Walmart's transformation into a media empire, the next year will redefine how we think about American enterprise and innovation.
We capture these annually on our predictions podcast (Apple, Spotify), but we’ve compiled them here for paid subscribers of Future Commerce Plus.
Costco: The New American Imperialism
In what might be his boldest prediction yet, Brian Lange, co-founder of Future Commerce, sees Costco as more than just a retail winner—it represents the American dream exported globally.
Brian: "Costco represents the American dream probably better than any other institution. It is Americanism. It is American thinking pushed out through the world. It is the Michael Jackson of now, it is the blue jeans of now... it is actually America in the world."
This thesis rests on several key observations:
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- Massive untapped potential in international markets
- Costco's international locations are consistently mobbed
- The model represents American abundance and efficiency
- Digital transformation still ahead
It's not just about retail dominance—it's about cultural export and soft power through commerce, making Costco perhaps the most important American brand of 2025.
Retail Winners & Losers
The retail landscape stands at a crossroads, where consolidation meets creative destruction. Traditional players are reimagining themselves while new paradigms emerge from unexpected places.
Looking Back & Looking Forward
Phillip: "[In 2024] Meta sort of fell apart, never really came back for most of the year for eCom brands."
Phillip: "The Age of Agglomeration arrives [in 2025]—retail as an entire category benefits from a lower threat of regulatory oversight."
Brian: "Costco represents the American dream probably better than any other institution."
Key Observations
- Walmart's evolution into media signals broader retail transformation
- Physical retail footprints becoming media channels
- International markets crucial for growth
- New regulatory environment shapes corporate structure
Modern Brands
The definition of "modern brand" expands beyond DTC, with hardware and physical products making a surprising comeback. Creator-led brands demonstrate staying power through authentic connection and attention mastery.
Looking Back & Looking Forward
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Phillip: "Short form content spurs purchase behavior, and buying in the channel where you're inspired is the shortest path to purchase."
Phillip: "I don't think it takes category innovators to create enduring brands. It's people who understand how to create attention."
Brian: "We are headed into an era of hardware interest... bespoke technology that's well designed."
Media & Technology
From AI governance to spatial computing, 2025 promises fundamental shifts in how we interact with technology. The return of hardware coincides with new forms of urban mobility and computing paradigms.
Looking Back & Looking Forward
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Phillip: "We're seeing a new brand of podcast creator, and I think it's true independent media content creators that are really breaking through."
Phillip: "eVTOL as a commercial transport is a huge tech winner of 2025 and would be a really interesting paradigm shift for short range transport in cities."
Brian: "I think OpenAI is going to have a tough year."
Brian: "Google still has so much default behavior. I don't think they're going to get split up. We've got a new political environment coming in."
Key Observations
- AI tools become more specialized and purpose-built
- Hardware makes a comeback in premium categories
- Urban mobility sees first commercial eVTOL deployments
- Independent media creators gain more influence
The Quantum Mechanics of Prediction
Brian's framework for making predictions rests on what he calls "quantum intelligence"—a unique way of seeing patterns others miss. Here's how it works:
Understanding "Taste" in Prediction
- "Taste is the unique ability to recognize objective truth in situations where subjectivity reigns supreme."
- People with quantum intelligence can assess things from multiple angles
- They can work backward from outcomes that don't yet exist (akin to, but different from, counterfactual thinking)
- They see beyond linear trend lines to spot discontinuities, which requires speaking out against common discourse.
Key Elements of the Framework
- Pattern Recognition: "When they look at the zigs and zags, they're not actually looking at the trend lines."
- Non-Linear Thinking: "They're not looking at the linear approach to how things are going to move."
- Future-Back Analysis: "They're able to assess truths that exist outside of the current data set of truth."
- Intuitive Synthesis: "We aren’t able to use words necessarily to define our rationale."
This approach led to several accurate predictions in 2024.
Cultural Shifts & Leadership
The next year marks a pivotal moment in leadership as Gen X steps into power, bringing a unique blend of cynicism and pragmatism to commerce and culture.
Looking Back & Looking Forward
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Phillip: "We've seen sort of millennials fumble the bag when it comes to exercising leadership in the world."
Brian: "I believe that taste is the unique ability to recognize objective truth in situations where subjectivity reigns supreme."
Brian: "There's going to be some kickback to this new tech political alignment, and I don't know what it looks like completely yet."
Key Observations
- Gen X leadership style emphasizes pragmatism
- Health and wellness regulation shifts under new administration
- American dynamism returns to manufacturing
- New forms of counterculture emerge
Wildcards & Unexpected Developments
Several developments could dramatically reshape these predictions, including:
- Significant political upheaval (tariffs, VC leadership in the White House)
- Major tech company breakups (Google, Facebook)
- Unexpected international conflicts
- Breakthrough technologies
Related Content & Further Reading
Previous Predictions Episodes
Related Future Commerce Content
- The Rise of Spatial Computing
- Understanding Modern Brands
- The Future of Retail Media
- Gen X Leadership Series
Notable Mentions
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