Imagine a world where the Department of Commerce isn't just a cog in the governmental machine, but the beating heart of American innovation and global competition. In this counterfactual reality, we explore a scenario where Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo emerges as the frontrunner for Vice President in Kamala Harris's groundbreaking presidential campaign.

This isn't merely political speculation—it's a window into a future where tech-savvy, commerce-centric leadership takes center stage in shaping national policy. As we peel back the layers of this hypothetical scenario, we uncover the profound implications for business leaders, tech innovators, and the very fabric of American economic strategy.

Welcome to a world where Commerce isn't just key—it's the keystone of 21st-century governance.

This briefing is exclusively for members of Future Commerce Plus.

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The Brief in Summary:

Why it matters: A theoretical Harris-Raimondo ticket could reshape tech policy and commerce regulation, impacting the future of retail and eCommerce.

The big picture: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's possible VP candidacy represents a shift towards tech-centric leadership in the executive branch.

Key points:

• Historical precedent. Former Commerce Secretaries like Herbert Hoover have ascended to high executive office, shaping industries for decades.
• Raimondo's strengths. Leadership on CHIPS Act, AI risk management, and domestic manufacturing position her as a tech-savvy leader.
• Policy implications. Potential acceleration of reshoring, clearer AI regulations, and enhanced digital infrastructure investments.
• Legislative impact. As Senate President, Raimondo could bridge commercial policy and legislation, potentially leading to more industry-informed tech policies.
• Challenges ahead. Balancing innovation, security, and international competition in a tech landscape that outpaces legislation.

What's next. eCommerce and retail executives should:

• Reassess supply chain strategies
• Anticipate new tech regulations
• Consider taking a more active role in shaping policy

The bottom line: This scenario, while speculative, highlights the growing intersection of commerce, technology, and governance, emphasizing the need for adaptable business strategies in a changing political landscape.

Full Briefing:

In light of recent developments suggesting a potential shift in the political landscape, we're exploring a scenario that could redefine the intersection of government, technology, and commerce. This comprehensive briefing delves into the historical precedents and future implications of a Commerce Department alumna potentially ascending to executive office.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ not-yet-week-old campaign has moved at a historic pace, setting fundraising records, winning full delegate support ahead of the DNC to secure the nomination, and securing both President Biden's endorsement and the support of Pelosi and the Obamas.

This unexpected development has ignited speculation about potential running mates.

Today our briefing will explore the counterfactual basis for a potential Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo emerging as a leading contender.

The implications of this potential transition extend far beyond mere political maneuvering. It represents a possible shift towards a more tech-centric executive branch, one that could fundamentally alter the relationship between government and the new digital economy.

For eCommerce and retail executives, this could signal a new era of policy-making that more directly addresses the challenges and opportunities presented by emerging technologies.

The Commerce-Executive Pipeline: A Historical Perspective

The idea of a Commerce Secretary in high executive office isn't unprecedented. Let's revisit some key historical examples:

• Herbert Hoover: Before his presidency, Hoover served as Secretary of Commerce from 1921 to 1928. His tenure saw the department expand its role in American business and technology, promoting standardization and fostering radio and aviation industries.
• Jesse H. Jones: While not ascending to the presidency, Jones served as Secretary of Commerce from 1940 to 1945, simultaneously heading the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. His dual role exemplified the nexus between commerce and national economic policy.
• Maurice Stans: Secretary of Commerce under Nixon, Stans played a crucial role in expanding U.S. trade relations, particularly with the Soviet bloc, demonstrating the department's influence on international commerce.

Perhaps the most notable example is Herbert Hoover, who served as Secretary of Commerce from 1921 to 1928 before becoming President. Hoover's tenure at Commerce saw the department expand its role in American business and technology, promoting standardization and fostering the growth of radio and aviation industries.

Hoover's legacy at Commerce includes the creation of a Division of Simplified Practice, which worked with industries to reduce waste and increase efficiency - a precursor to modern supply chain optimization. He also championed the development of commercial aviation, laying groundwork that would eventually transform global commerce. These initiatives demonstrate how Commerce Department leadership can shape industries for decades to come.

Raimondo: A 21st Century Commerce Leader

A Raimondo candidacy represents a modern evolution of this historical thread. Her tenure has been marked by several key initiatives that position her as a leader equipped to handle the complexities of our digital age.

Raimondo's leadership on the CHIPS Act demonstrates her understanding of the critical role that advanced manufacturing plays in national security and economic competitiveness. By spearheading efforts to allocate $50B of allocated spending to revitalize domestic semiconductor manufacturing[1], she and her agency are addressing a key vulnerability in the global supply chain that has implications across all sectors of the economy, from smartphones to automobiles. Commerce doesn’t just oversee reporting and management of economic and commercial growth in the United States; Commerce becomes a strategic partner in American defense and National Security.

Moreover, her oversight of NIST's development of AI risk management frameworks puts her at the forefront of one of the most pressing technological challenges of our time. As AI continues to transform industries, having leadership that understands both its potential and its risks could be crucial in crafting balanced, effective policies.

Implications for the eCommerce and Retail

This counterfactual exploration takes a few leaps, but it’s worth the mental exercise of what Commerce savvy could bring to a younger, more tech-savvy administration that is pro-domestic manufacturing, pro-technology, while simultaneously being anti effective-acceleration.

As such, Harris-Raimondo administration could lead to significant shifts in policy that directly impact eCommerce and retail. On the domestic front, we might see an acceleration of reshoring initiatives, clawing back forty years of globalism, building on the back of the CHIPS Act to encompass a broader range of critical technologies. This could lead to a more resilient supply chain, though admittedly at the expense of higher costs as production shifts away from lower-cost overseas locations. But this is already underway, and a necessary defense against growing concerns around China’s dominance on the world stage.

In the realm of AI and automation, clearer regulatory frameworks are all but guaranteed—despite what you may think of governmental overreach and regulatory capture. This is a topic with intense bi-partisan support.

Let’s not forget that within his first six months in office, President Biden issued multiple EOs that were tasked to be carried out by Commerce, including orders to improve cybersecurity[2] and limit the negative impact of the thornier side of cryptocurrency.[7] Following President Biden’s executive order (EO) for Safe, Secure and Trustworthy Development of AI[4], it was Gina Raimondo’s Department of Commerce that was tasked with implementing tests, standards, and guidance to carry out the order.

This, at a time when the industry (aka Sam Altman) are practically begging to be regulated.[3]

Commerce and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), led by Under Secretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology and NIST Director Laurie E. Locascio are tasked with carrying out the EO for AI.. While this might streamline the adoption of AI in areas like customer service and inventory management, it could also impose new compliance burdens, particularly around data privacy and algorithmic transparency.

Digital infrastructure implications are equally profound. Major investments in current broadband initiatives like 5G, and future wireless technologies, could dramatically enhance the capabilities of domestic shopping, both online and off. Incidents like the Crowdstrike BSOD outage[5] and  heighten our awareness enhanced standards and regulations around areas that are defined largely by case law and class action lawsuits (like accessibility and cybersecurity) might require significant investments that will prove difficult.

Strong leadership from Raimondo and her background at Commerce may lead to an Executive branch agenda that will keep us competitive in the new era of AI.

Historical Parallels, Legislative Leadership, and Modern Challenges

In this hypothetical Harris/Raimondo ticket, that places Raimondo not just a heartbeat away from the Presidency, but also into the job of presiding over the Senate.

As potential Senate President, Raimondo would be uniquely positioned to bridge the gap between commercial policy and legislation. Her experience with complex initiatives could be invaluable in navigating the legislative process for similarly ambitious programs.

This could lead to more coherent, industry-informed policies around emerging technologies For instance, we might see more nuanced approaches than the FTC has managed to do with regard  to managing cloud vendor lock in[10]; or in unifying the regulation of the gig economy; or even the move to on-device for AI workloads to provided fairer access for increased competition[9]. We’re also keen to see more guidelines on the use of cryptocurrencies in eCommerce, including a US Treasury stablecoin within the term of the next administration[11].

This could also lead to more stringent oversight of tech giants, potentially altering the competitive landscape for online marketplaces. As cloud computing has proven to be

While we draw inspiration from historical precedent, the challenges facing a modern Commerce Secretary-turned-VP are complex to say the least. We’re worlds apart from Hoover's era; today's global tech marketplace has a delicate balancing act between innovation, security, and international ‘co-opetition’; especially in the European Union which continues to globally isolate itself and fracture commerce experiences online[6], and with growing Chinese megamarketplaces which gain consumer adoption at a terrifyingly fast pace.

Raimondo's experience negotiating digital trade agreements could be crucial in navigating these waters.

As an aside, Raimondo’s priors fit well into larger, non-Commerce-related parts of the Democratic platform, including Climate Tech. Sustainability is still quite central to our domestic Commerce agenda, and leadership with a nuanced understanding of both economic and environmental concerns could be huge for the party.

Raimondo's work on offshore wind projects as Governor of Rhode Island[8] suggests she might be well-equipped to handle these multifaceted issues and has the political will to try to make them reality.

What This Means for Future Commerce Leaders

For executives at the forefront of retail and eCommerce, this potential shift in leadership necessitates a more strategic reevaluation.

It's not just about adapting to new policies, but anticipating them. Companies that align their long-term strategies with the direction of national technology and Commerce policies may find themselves at a significant advantage. The inverse is also true.

This might involve reassessing supply chain strategies to prioritize resilience over pure cost-efficiency, or accelerating investments in AI and automation while keeping a close eye on evolving regulatory frameworks. It could also mean taking a more active role in shaping policy, as a more tech-savvy executive branch might be more receptive to input from industry leaders.

This scenario is surely speculative, but it underscores the increasing intertwining of commerce, technology, and governance. The potential elevation of a Commerce Secretary to high executive office would cement the growing importance of tech-savvy, economically-focused leadership in navigating the challenges ahead of us in the 21st century.

The lines between digital and physical commerce have never been as blurred as they are today and policy decisions made at the highest levels of government will have ever-more-direct impacts on the day-to-day operations of eCommerce and retail businesses.

Footnotes

1. CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 - Legislation allocating $52 billion for semiconductor manufacturing and research.
2. Executive Order 14028 on Improving the Nation's Cybersecurity (May 2021) - Tasked NIST with developing new cybersecurity standards.
3. Sam Altman's testimony before Congress calling for AI regulation (May 2023) - OpenAI CEO urging for government oversight of AI.
4. Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (October 2023) - Biden's order on AI safety and development.
5. Crowdstrike BSOD outage (July 2024) - Major cybersecurity incident affecting numerous businesses.
6. EU Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act - European legislation affecting global tech companies and digital marketplaces.
7. Executive Order 14067 on Ensuring Responsible Development of Digital Assets (March 2022) - Addressing cryptocurrency and digital asset challenges.
8. Rhode Island's offshore wind initiatives during Raimondo's governorship (2015-2021) - Example of Raimondo's work on renewable energy projects.
9. The World Economic Forum on the emergence and ‘democratization’ of on-device AI processing — On-device AI would democratise GenAI and ensure inclusive participation in the economy‍
10. UK regulator hearings on cloud vendor lock-in: UK regulators sound the alarm on cloud vendor lock-in‍
11. Senate Stablecoin Bill (2023) - Bipartisan legislation aimed at regulating stablecoins and providing a framework for their use in the U.S. financial system